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KMID : 1170320200260030015
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2020 Volume.26 No. 3 p.15 ~ p.38
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Physician Shortage and Policy Alternatives
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Kim Jin-Hyun
Lee Sun-Mi
Kwon Hyun-Jeong
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Abstract
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The purpose of this study is to analyze the supply of and demand for physician manpower in long-term and suggest policy alternatives to increase a capacity of physician supply. A relative-index regression model was developed to estimate the supply and demand of physician in long-term and the time series data were collected from the list of Korean Medical Association members, national health insurance claims data base, and Health Statistics on the web site of OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). The ratio of physicians to a 1,000 population is 2.3 as of 2018 in Korea, compared with an average of 3.5 in OECD member countries. Based on physician supply and health services data in the year 2001~2018, it is estimated that the shortage of physicians will be 25,746 in 2030, 27,013 in 2040, and 28,279 in 2050. Another estimation based on the data during the year 2014~2018 showed that the number of physicians will be short of 50,067 in 2030, 78,807 in 2040, and 107,548 in 2050. In order to cope with the shortage of physician manpower, various policy alternatives including a sufficient increase in the enrollment quotas in medical schools(for example, more than 4,000~6,000 entrants per year), the establishment of new medical schools and special-purpose medical schools, and the use of alternative workforce such as PA(physician assistant) and advanced practice nurses are proposed.
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KEYWORD
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Physician manpower, Physician shortage, Physician supply
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